According to the analysis report by shipping consultancy firm Drewry, tariff proposals by the Trump administration targeting major trading partners such as China, Vietnam, and the EU could potentially reshape the trade and international transport landscape, calling for shipping companies, freight forwarders, and shippers to actively adjust their operational strategies.

Drewry points out that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods in 2018 have nearly halted the growth of containerized goods shipped from China to the United States over the six years following the implementation of the tariffs, with overall growth almost at zero. Meanwhile, Vietnam, unaffected by tariffs, saw a 45% increase in container exports to the United States during the same period, benefiting significantly from trade diversions.

Research by Haberkorn et al. indicates that for every 1% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States in 2018-2019, trade volume decreased by 1% one year later, highlighting the potential impact of higher tariffs under the "Trump 2.0" scenario.

The "Trump 2.0" tariff policy represents an escalation, broadly but unevenly applied to trading partners, with countries like China and Vietnam facing particularly extreme tariff hikes. This could lead to significant strategic adjustments in regional supply chains, creating a complex situation of winners and losers.

Drewry emphasizes that the turbulence in the container shipping market will have "asymmetric short-term impacts" on shipping companies and shippers, and "Trump 2.0" could result in an overall contraction in global shipping demand. Shippers need to review sourcing strategies, engage tariff experts to ensure compliance and optimize tariff burdens, assess the volatility of transport capacity and rates to address potential logistics disruptions and cost fluctuations. Shipping companies, on the other hand, need to adjust capacity and service frequencies to meet changing demand patterns and explore new markets outside the U.S. to reduce dependence on potentially shrinking routes.