According to the magazine "EXAME," if the trade war between China and the United States escalates, Brazil's soybean exports to China could reach 90 million tons. Currently, Brazil's soybean exports to China are approximately 75 million tons.

Based on estimates from analytics firms, "EXAME" magazine indicates that China imported 105 million tons of soybeans, with 71% coming from Brazil and 21% from the United States. Taking into account exchange rates and shipment volumes, the value of Brazilian soybean exports to China could potentially increase by up to $7 billion, with expectations to reach $50 billion by 2025.

Analysis from Datagro Consultoria shows that China is the primary destination for North American soybeans, accounting for 52% of U.S. exports in 2024. The consultancy suggests that additional tariffs imposed by China on U.S. soybeans could harm U.S. exports while boosting the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the market.

It is anticipated that China will continue to seek soybean supplies from other countries such as Argentina, which could impact Brazil's exports. In the first quarter of 2025, China has already purchased 16.5 million tons of soybeans from Brazil. Datagro predicts that export volumes will increase from April to May.

Despite the expected increase in exports, Brazil still faces challenges, including logistical issues. Delays in port loading times could affect Brazil's global competitiveness. Additionally, there are risks in the industrialization of Brazilian soybeans. Over-reliance on raw grain exports could limit value creation, job opportunities, and the development of the soybean derivatives industry.