On April 10, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated at the opening ceremony of the 2018 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia that China does not aim at pursuing a trade surplus and sincerely hopes to increase imports and promote current account balances.

Xi Jinping said that he hopes that developed countries will artificially stop the trade in high-tech products and artificially limit the export of high-tech products to China.

At a regular press conference on the 10th, Foreign Ministry spokesman Luan Shuang said that President Xi Jinping announced a series of new and important measures to expand China's opening up in keynote speeches, covering market access liberalization, improving investment environment, and strengthening intellectual property protection. Actively expand imports in four areas.

China does not aim at pursuing trade surplus

Since the Trump administration took power, China’s Sino-U.S. trade balance between China and the United States has been ambiguous. The Chinese side has repeatedly stated on various international occasions that it is not aiming at pursuing a trade surplus.

In fact, since 2007, the proportion of China’s trade surplus as a percentage of GDP has been declining. Wang Shouwen, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, gave a data at a press conference: “2007 Our regular trade surplus accounts for 9.9% of GDP, up from only a few percent last year."

In the same period, as far as the United States is concerned, the current account trade deficit accounts for the proportion of GDP in recent years, which reached 4.9% in the global financial crisis in 2007, and now it has fallen to 2.3%.

Germany, which is also a big exporter, has not shrunk its current account surplus even after the financial crisis. According to the statistics of the German statistical office, in 2016 and 2017, Germany’s current account surplus accounted for about 8% of GDP, and it is predicted that this proportion will barely drop to 8% by 2018, but the German side does not think this It is caused by mercantilist policies, but stems from the aging of the German population: the elderly consume less and the household savings rate remains high. In other words, the national savings after the completion of the money is more than the amount spent, and the difference in income will inevitably be expressed as a net export.

Zhou Shiji, a senior researcher at the Center for Sino-U.S. Relations at Tsinghua University, told the First Financial Reporter that on the one hand, the proportion of China's current account surplus in GDP has been declining. On the other hand, consumption has been the main driving force for China's economic growth. The ultimate consumer spending in 2017 is The contribution rate of GDP growth is 58.8%. "The domestic consumer market is huge. This is also the biggest cost of China (in the trade war)."

Lawrence H. Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, also wrote in the Financial Times that just a few years ago, China’s current account surplus was still the largest among major countries, and to maintain export demand, The renminbi also maintains a low exchange rate.

Summers said that the current global trade surplus in China is already much lower than the U.S. target of negotiating several years ago, and China has spent about 1 trillion U.S. dollars to support the exchange rate of the renminbi.

Summers pointed out two points. First, the real reason for the realignment of the economy is not the trade agreement. It is because the rise of emerging markets has become a major player in the global economy. This is not something the United States can stop.

Second, Trump's view that the United States did not make progress through negotiations is wrong. Trump believes that if the use of intimidation measures is not used in multilateral pressure on China, the results are often invalid, but the historical case of the aforementioned trade surplus indicates that this view is also untenable.

Do not overpower people's strong buy and sell

Xi Jinping pointed out that over the past five years, more than 80 countries and international organizations have signed cooperation agreements with China. The "One Belt and One Road" initiative is based on China. However, opportunities and achievements belong to the world. China does not play a geopolitical abacus and does not engage in closed-door exclusive circles and does not do anything to surpass people's strengths.

Yan Shuang said that at present, unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise, the multilateral trading system is facing challenges, and the process of economic globalization is facing difficulties. Under this situation, China has upheld the banner of liberalization of trade and investment, promoted the establishment of an open world economy, called on all countries to seek cooperation and win-win, and proactively announced a series of major measures to expand opening up. The Chinese side has provided strong support for the growth of international trade and the development of the world economy with practical actions, and injected strong momentum.

Summers also wrote in his article that the U.S. disregards the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the global trade system and can only allow other countries to choose to stand on the side of China in the trade war. This result will not only make China easier to counter the United States, but will also reduce the actual effectiveness of the US sanctions. He believes that China can still export to other markets, and those U.S. producers that use Chinese parts have to pay for tariffs and eventually lose their competitiveness.

Zhou Shijun told the First Financial reporter that the United States misjudged the situation. In 1950, the U.S. GDP accounted for half of the world's GDP. By 2001, this figure had changed to 33%, and in 2016 it had dropped to 24.66%. In 2001, China’s GDP accounted for 3.8% of global GDP, and this figure rose in 2016. Up to 15% was 62.2% in the same period in the United States. Last year, China's GDP had reached 12.25 trillion US dollars. Now is not the time to leave the United States without turning it.

For example, the Chinese list of counterattacks against the United States includes pork. Zhou Shizhen thinks that Europe responded positively because German pork products have the opportunity to fill the gap in the United States.

China and Austria also stated in their joint statement on the 8th that both parties will work together to open markets for each other's high-quality goods, such as the import of Austrian pork and fruit from China, while respecting each other’s national security and quality supervision requirements.

Relaxation of export controls on high-tech products in China

Wang Shouwen pointed out that he was very pleased to see that in the areas of energy products, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas, the United States did not allow exports to China. After President Trump came to power, he relaxed the restrictions in this respect. We import oil and natural gas from the United States. It has been greatly increased. These are very positive measures that will help resolve our trade imbalance between China and the United States.

According to U.S. data, in terms of import growth, U.S. imports to China increased by 6.7 times in 2017, becoming the fastest growing country for Chinese imports.

Zhou Shijun said that if liquefied natural gas and oil are involved, if Trump does not make a trade war, the original Chinese imports from the United States this year are in good condition. Taking liquefied natural gas as an example, the proportion of imports will continue to rise, and the United States may become China’s No. The three major importers of LNG are behind Australia and Qatar.

At the same time, the Chinese side has repeatedly stated that it hopes that the United States can relax its export control of high-tech products to China.

Wang Shouwen pointed out that the reduction of surpluses requires the efforts of both parties, and not one can reduce the surplus. I want to buy something from him. He doesn't sell it. He continues to limit his exports. How can he reduce the surplus?

For Sino-U.S. trade, former state leaders have had an incisive summary that "it is not always possible for Chinese to sit on a U.S. plane to eat soybeans." Zhou Shizhen pointed out that the settlement of the trade deficit between the United States and China depends on the fact that the United States has liberalized the sale of high-tech for China’s civilian use. This not only benefits China, but also means hundreds of billions of dollars of business opportunities for the United States. The deficit of US$300 billion can be reduced by 1/3. .

In particular, if one side wants to buy more, one party must also sell more. At present, trade between China and the United States in terms of agricultural products such as soybeans is already at a high level, and the United States wants China to reduce its surplus, and has not come up with a feasible list of goods. "In the end, what should China buy?" Zhou Shizhen pointed out that the next step is to require the United States to effectively relax restrictions on the export of high-tech products to China.