At the beginning of this year, Sino-U.S. soybean trade showed strong momentum, but industry analysts remain cautious about its long-term prospects, primarily due to the risks of escalating tariff policies and the tense trade relations between China and the United States.

According to customs data cited in the latest weekly report by MB Shipbrokers, from January to February 2024, China imported a total of 9.1 million tons of soybeans from the United States, representing a significant increase of 84.1% year-on-year. Analysts believe that this surge is mainly attributed to ample supply of high-quality soybeans from the United States and the market securing sources in advance to cope with potential trade frictions.

In contrast, soybean exports from Brazil saw a sharp decline, with exports to China dropping to 3.6 million tons during the same period, marking a drastic decrease of 48.4% year-on-year. MB Shipbrokers pointed out that this is primarily due to delayed planting in Brazil leading to tight soybean supply at the beginning of the year. However, with rapid progress in soybean harvesting in Brazil, with 70% already completed, it is expected to peak in exports in the second quarter of 2025, reshaping the export landscape to China.

MB Shipbrokers noted that with China recently imposing additional tariffs on U.S. agricultural products (including soybeans), China's dependence on Brazilian soybeans will deepen further. This trend began to emerge during the previous trade war.

According to Zhongjin's understanding, in response to the Trump administration's 20% tariffs on China, China has imposed 15% tariffs on U.S. corn and wheat, and 10% tariffs on sorghum and soybeans.

Data provided by Howe Robinson Partners shows that in 2024, China imported a total of 53 million tons of dry bulk goods from the United States, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the previous year. Soybeans hold a significant share in China's overall imports, with U.S. soybeans accounting for 21%.

If China continues to shift its purchasing focus southward, it will have profound implications on the shipping market. Greek dry bulk giant Star Bulk pointed out that this shift could drive a 10% to 15% increase in ton-miles traveled.

Additionally, analysts are cautioning the market to monitor potential port congestion issues. Compared to U.S. ports, South American ports have lower overall efficiency. If Brazilian soybean exports to China surge in the second quarter of 2025, coupled with seasonal peak shipments, it could exacerbate local port bottlenecks and drive demand for Panamax-type vessel capacity.