A report released by the Baltic International Maritime公会 (BIMCO) recently pointed out that the average age of container ships has reached 14.2 years, which is the highest level so far. This data also means that container ships have become the oldest ships among the three major ship types in the shipping industry. Compared with this, the average age of dry bulk carriers is 11.9 years, and the average age of oil tankers is 12.8 years.

Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst of BIMCO, pointed out that "the average age of container ship fleets has increased by 4.3 years in the past 13 years since the average age reached a new low of 9.9 years in August 2010. A total of 2516 container ships were delivered in the past 13 years, while 1384 container ships were scrapped, but these are not enough to reduce the average age of container ships. "

According to Clarkson data, the average age of dry bulk ship fleets has increased by 2.8 years to 11.9 years in the past 10 years, and the average age of oil tanker fleets has increased by 4.6 years to 12.8 years in the past 10 years, but the current average age of oil tanker fleets is still lower than that of container ships.

According to Alphaliner data, there are about 1200 container ships in the world with a ship age of 20 years or more, with a total capacity of about 2900000 TEU, equivalent to more than 20% of the current fleet capacity.

It is worth mentioning that Alphaliner pointed out that among the container ships with a ship age of more than 20 years, as many as 25% belong to the world's largest container shipping company Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Since August 2020, MSC has aggressively acquired second-hand container ships, of which as many as 145 ships are over 20 years old. Therefore, it can be said that in the context of future overcapacity in the shipping market, MSC's decision on when to scrap and报废 old ships will probably affect the fate of many other routes.

Clearly, container ships over 20 years old are the main targets for scrapping in the next few years. According to Clarkson data, among ships over 20 years old, container ships with a capacity of 0-2999TEU and 3000-5999TEU account for 76% and 16% respectively, indicating that ship updates in the past few years have mainly focused on ultra-panama container ships.

In addition, current new ship orders are still concentrated on large container ships. The number of ship orders for ships over 6000TEU is much lower than that of ships over 20 years old. In the size segment of 0-2999TEU, there are 317 new ships under construction, but there are 994 ships over 20 years old. Similarly, BIMCO data shows that there are 210 ships over 3000-5999TEU over 20 years old, but there are only 100 new ship orders.

Rasmussen said: "Although container freight has fallen significantly in the past 15 months, compared with the past 10 years, ship scrapping is still relatively low in 2023. In the first nine months of this year, 57 container ships were scrapped, while in the past ten years, the average scrapping of container ships was 81 ships. The new ship orders for container ships are expected to increase from an average of about 75 per year to over 85 per year by 2025. According to scrapping ship numbers, average ship age will drop and ship size will increase slightly. Average energy efficiency will also increase for all ship sizes. In addition, more ships will be able to use alternative low-carbon fuels as technology develops."

Clarkson data shows that during the booming market for container shipping from 2021 to 2022, a total of only 27 container ships were scrapped over two years, far below the average figure.